Monday, March 23, 2009

What are the chances?

On average only 60% of sperm have enough motility to make it to the fallopian tubes, out of a hundred million sperm only several dozen usually reach the egg.
The remaining sperm then have to be strong enough to try to fertilize the egg, which can take about an hour to permeate the eggs's membrane.
Then a fertilized egg has to move into the uterus and, IF that journey goes well, be implanted in the uterine wall, which only then makes the process of conception complete.
There is only a 20% average chance of becoming pregnant each cycle for women under 30, 12-14% chance per cycle for women between 30-34, and only 7-9% chance for women age 35-39.
And that's only if you have the timing is right. Ovulation is only a 24 hour window of fertility, but sperm can last about 5-6 days in the fallopian tubes, so a maximum 6 day opening to get pregnant, but on average only 48 hrs.
But conception doesn't guarentee a baby. It is estimated that 70% of fertilized eggs will miscarry before the 13th week, most of those happen shortly after implantation and cause bleeding around the same time as an expected period, or a slightly late period. And the chance of miscarriage about doubles when a woman is over 35 years old.

So, for example, one year of trying for us is 12 attempts to get pregnant. Lets assume we get the timing right, out of those 12 attempts it is average for only 1.44 eggs to be fertilized (since I am over 30). And out of those 1.44 eggs fertilized it's likely only .43 will make it past the 4th week of pregnancy. And so for 3 years of trying, the probability has been that we've only had 1.29 chances for a successful pregnancy. That's just averages, I could have better fertility than average, however, I do not. Take into consideration my family history; it took my mom 5 years to get pregnant, one of her sisters was unable to have children, and one of my dad's sisters were thought to not be able to have children but were able to have one, and then my sister, who is 5 years younger than me, has tried 6 months longer than us has also not been able to conceive.

Sometimes I need a reminder that I AM NOT IN CONTROL. If ever I needed proof, those statistics are it. To me it's a miracle anyone has children, yet there are women who madly defy these odds. Women who don't know anything about ovulation or timing are often the ones I hear saying holding hands with their husband gets them pregnant. Or women who are using birth control and that 1% (or less) chance happens to them. They are likely the reason we don't know the odds are so not in our favor. But now that there is science calculating averages of chances, for every woman bringing the average up there is one bringing it down. And what's staggaring is that the AVERAGE chances for pregnancy are so astronomically improbable, it only points to one conclusion....God is the only one who has ultimate control over who gets pregnant. Every baby is meant to be, and every barren woman is also meant to be.

1 comment:

ginna said...

Hi
I agree with your views.Most people are uaware of many concepts which you explained.
Thanks for sharing new information with example.
Keep posting.

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